A friend of mine once told me that when he worked for a news organization, one of the head people there told him, “Our job isn’t to report the news. Our job is to scare people.” That quote reminded me of Bill Murray’s character in Scrooged when he told his staff that he wanted people to be terrified NOT to watch their Christmas Eve special.
I’ve often been critical of the Joe Bastardi school of hurricane forecasting. Our own Houston Chronicle is often gifted in the art of hyperbole when it comes to hurricane prognosticating and describing doomsday scenarios even if SciGuy Eric Berger does his best to be even-handed, at least on his blog.
This does not mean, however, that I underestimate the damage hurricanes can do. I’ve lived in Houston all my life. I’ve been through Alicia and Allison, two women I’d really prefer to regret. I’ve seen numerous depressions and storms move through the area over the years, read about others and even felt the wrath of a particularly nasty Texas thunderstorm on more than one summer afternoon.
As a result, it does not surprise me that the AP has found 5 areas particularly vulnerable to a Katrina-like disaster and one of them is Galveson. The report cites the lack of an evacuation route as the primary source of concern.
Galveston is about 10 feet above sea level, protected on the south side by an 18-foot seawall that, because of beach erosion, would likely be inundated by even a Category 3 hurricane. With no barrier islands or coastal marshes to protect it, most of Galveston would be submerged by a Category 5 hurricane.
Houston, about 40 miles northwest of Galveston, is only about 50 feet above sea level and is crisscrossed by wide bayous that pour into Galveston Bay and the Gulf. The city is notoriously flood-prone, with some sections of interstate becoming impassable in heavy thunderstorms.
A major storm striking Galveston head-on or to the west would push enormous amounts of Gulf water into Galveston Bay. The ensuing surge would flood one of the busiest petrochemical regions in the country and cut off the low-lying highways that would become escape routes.
A swamped Galveston Bay could back up through Houston’s bayous, pushing water over the banks into thousands of neighborhoods and downtown.
Emergency officials say the next evacuation will rely on a better-prepared citizenry, staged evacuations and highway reversals to move hundreds of thousands of vehicles along a freeway that is chronically congested and flood-prone under normal conditions. They also hope to move hundreds of thousands of Houstonians off the roads to clear the way for those who need to evacuate earlier.
If I were the Chron, I might consider contacting the AP and asking for some credit since they wrote a much more detailed version of this doomsday scenario in 2005.
I’m no fool. I completely understand the implications of limited evacuation routes. Anyone caught in even the mildest traffic during the disaster that was the evacuation for Rita two years ago understands that getting out on short notice is a near impossibility.
However, it is also key to note that, as I’ve posted before, massive Gulf storms are historically rare. There have only been 3 (or 4 if you count the unreported storm in the early 40’s) major hurricanes to hit Galveston since 1900. The most damaging storm, outside the storm of 1900 which hit without the benefit of radar or a seawall, was actually Tropical Storm Allison. Most of us wouldn’t be overly concerned about a depression or tropical storm, but we might run like scared rabbits with the threat of a hurricane.
By no means does this mean that we shouldn’t be prepared. Like any good veteran of many past hurricane seasons, I’m prepared (appropriate since the season starts today and it looks like it will be a busy one) and you should be as well. BUT, there is a difference between preparedness and panic. Pay attention, particularly if you live near the coast or where it tends to flood. Just don’t start screaming, “The sky is falling” until it actually is.